There are two sides to the issue of interaction with history.
I am particularly aware of this as the father and originator of MasterCard which is the first credit card designed to be a global currency.
Am I the father of the first global currency or not? The 'not' argument is that what I invented would have developed in any case because it was obvious.
The first thing that needs to be understood is the real history of the development of the bank credit card and my role in it. I went from being the most knowledgeable person at the first bank credit card, Bankamericard, to organizing a new bank credit card among my four friends at the other major banks in San Francisco.
At the time, Bankamericard was being copied in up-state New York (where they were already using the trademark 'Interbankcard'), in Kentucky (where we later had to buy the name Mastercard), and in Chicago where the unit banks were trying to create a mutual bank card that failed in two months. (Banks were not allowed to have multiple branches in Illinois.)
My organizing for a new bankcard, with shared bank ownership, was uniquely my idea which is why I demanded that the next meeting of the four banks be with executive vice presidents at our common lawyer's office. I proposed that the new card be modeled on the bank check clearing house which was an established legal, mutual, American bank joint operation. This was obvious to me, but not to any other bankers in the country.
It was also obvious to Bank of America, when they saw it. Bank of America immediately copied the MasterCard organization upon seeing it. Bankamericard changed its name to accommodate this new structure, calling itself Visa.
Yes this was obvious. Would it have happened without my insight?
I merely point out that suitcases with wheels was an obvious technology as airplane travel became common after 1950, but suitcases with wheels didn't hit the market until 40 years later, patented by Bob Plath a Northwest Airlines pilot.
Being obvious doesn't make something real.
The other thing about 'obvious' and historic outcomes is that we don't know the direction of influence. Here are three historic anecdotes to consider.
In the early 1970s two friends of mine and I put on three concerts. One, the prime mover, Ed Stadum, was a lawyer who had taught me how to ride a motorcycle on mountain paths. His idea was to put on country and western concerts in the center of the great Hard Rock movement of San Francisco. We had the Carter Family in San Francisco at Ghirardelli Square. Then followed with Charlie Pride and Merle Haggard at the Oakland Coliseum.As one of the producers I was backstage at the Carter Family production. One of the family, June, the energetic bouncy singer and tambourine player, came up to me and wanted to go have sex afterwards. To this day I regret saying 'no' because I had a girl friend with me in the audience at the time.
Now this is not meaningful except that June Carter had been married to Johnny Cash several years earlier. They became known as a famous and tight couple over the next several decades.
What would have happened if I had taken up with June? Who knows? What might have happened to me is an important part of the question, too.
Another anecdote is that I went to San Francisco State College in 1960 for a year because the graduate school of economics at U.C. Berkeley wouldn't admit me until I had a bachelor's degree. S.F. State only required that I spend one year there. Which I did.
In my second week on campus, the school student board of directors asked me to be president of the student body. Which I accepted. I had a big budget and used it to duplicate two things that were important to me in my earlier year at the U. of Chicago: the pool hall and the classic film program (called 'Old Doc').
The classic film program was weekly and very popular. When I left, the administration asked a faculty member to take it over. He turned the weekly program into the film department. Years later, with interest and money from Francis Ford Coppola, it became a well known film department.
This was not just a fluke of my behavior. About seven years later, as a banker, I was frustrated with the absence of classic films in movie theaters in San Francisco. So I organized a weekly film showing of classic films at an old unused Chinese theater in North Beach.(The Pagoda theater) I never actually went. I was too busy with other things. One night in the early 1970's I drove by the theater after midnight and saw on the marquee the film Betty Boop. I thought that was a little weird for my classic film series and I was also curious about the film.
I stopped and went in. No film. Just a raucous full house. There was an all male chorus line on stage, The Cockettes, with a large black singer named Sylvester. Did I start that? Did it shape my later life and long involvement with the gay community?
In 1974, I started the Briarpatch Network at an office I opened on Wednesdays at Pier 40. Soon after, word got out that hippies could come by and get business advice. One Wednesday someone came to my office and said that there was a guy outside, in front of the Pier entrance, who had a model, in his car, to show me.
The model took up the full trunk of his older Buick. You've seen it. It was the original of the future Galactic Starships of Star Wars I. It was a brand new model but it was painted to look old and used. The fellow wanted to know what to do with it. He wanted to make a business of it.
My advice was to keep driving South to Hollywood. Park on the street with the trunk open and let the world come to him.
Not too different from the advice I gave my next door neighbor Linda X. She made a living sizing dresses for a local San Francisco dress maker. It was her idea to make jackets out of new fabrics that were waterproof and light. She had ten models she had sewn. What should she do with them?
I told her that a fashion industry fair was going to be in San Francisco in a week. I'd pay for her to set up a rack and for her to put her ten jackets on it and deal with the world that came by.
She was offered the head design job by two companies: Climb Any Mountain and North Face. She took them both and created the modern sportswear core design of lightweight waterproof fabric. What would have happened if Linda never went to that fair?
Back to the original question. What did I start? Would it have happened otherwise?