In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake put together an equation to estimate the possibility of alien life in the universe. Here is his famous equation. Most people assume the solution to the equation is non-zero. They assume there is intelligent life somewhere in the universe.
N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L
- N = The number of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.
- R* =The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
- fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
- ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
- fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
- fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
- fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
- L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
I say with certainty that the solution is zero. There is no other intelligent life in the universe..
I stop at fi of Drake’s equation and put in the following factors:
N=R* • fp • ne • fl • (np • ns• na• ne• st• tm• ys• ye• pt)
- np= Number of years of life on the earth. 3 billion years
- ns= Number of species over those years. 100 million
- na= Number of species with tool making appendages. Roughly 50
- ne= Number of the 50 species ever to have lived. 50 billion
- st= Species capable of written word (technology). 1 species
- tm= Total members of that species that ever lived. 8.5 billion
- ys= Years that species had electrical technology. 170 years.
- ye= Years those species’ members could generate transmissible electromagnetic waves capable of leaving the planet. 100 years.
- pt= Number of members of the species who could work together to produce electricity and operate transmission equipment. 1 million.
Now put that into Drake’s equation and you get zero. Exactly zero chance of getting radio signals from anywhere else in the universe.
The SETI project is based on bad math.