It is going to happen very fast.
Two of the groups who have created havoc in the past half century, the tribal Arabs and the theocratic Russians are about to lose their vital role in the energy world. The tribal Arabs are being defeated by the discoveries of vast natural gas resources worldwide, and the theocratic Russians by the efforts of all their neighbors in finding ways to circumvent Russian territory in the delivery of energy.
Here is the story of China getting oil and gas directly from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Why do I call the Russians theocratic? I look at their 1,000 year old ubiquitous-character-defining Russian church, the Eastern Orthodox, that had three basic principles: hierarchy is everything, ignorance is bliss and secrecy is happiness.