Headlines: AIDs vaccine success

When AIDs was first recognized in 1981, medical leaders assured all of us in regular public statements that a vaccine would be available within ten years.  It is now nearly thirty years later and we are told in headlines about a successful AIDs vaccine test.

These are the actual numbers of the test on more than 16,000 Thai volunteers all of whom were taught to use condoms and to use other precautionary measures: "The results: new infections occurred in 51 of the 8,197 given vaccine and in 74 of the 8,198 who received dummy shots."

The test took place over a three year period and relied on a combination of two different vaccina. 

I'm sorry friends, I'm a statistician, that is progress over 30 years but 51 infections compared to 74 infections among cautious people may be statistically significant but it is not sufficient to herald the arrival of an AIDs vaccine.