It appears to me that the American economy, despite the Obama and Democratic histrionics, will be growing by mid-Summer. The total downturn will not have actually happened, neither 2008 nor 2009 will show a GDP below zero. Unemployment will remain high because the productivity of the past ten years means it will take much longer to re-employ the out-of-work force that is living in the wrong part of the country and has the wrong skills. The U.S. will pull the rest of the world out of their genuine economic downturns.
The hypothetical question I ask in this blog is: What would generate commerce? I ask it because Congress passed a completely futile stimulus package. So what could the government do to actually stimulate commerce if it ever really needed to. (I've written separately what was really needed to prevent a financial meltdown: guarantee all bank deposits and prohibit termination of loans unless the underlying asset has declined in value.)
Only two things that I can think of that would stimulate commerce: bring in more hard working entrepreneurial people....and bring in more hard working entrepreneurial people.
*Second, giving every non-American student getting a graduate degree in the U.S. a green card and a short series of steps to citizenship.
Anyone who ever looked at a phone book of the most productive research lab in America, the Bell Labs, would see that nearly every name was a foreign name. When we have closed American borders we have 150 million adults available for the work force, few of them exceptional. When we have open borders we have 2,000 million adults available for our work force with tens of thousands of them exceptional.