Have we reached the bottom of the financial, housing or commercial downturn?
I believe we have reached the bottom of the financial downturn. I find it fairly easy to get bank credit. I think that the Dow Jones at $8,000 is very close to the book value of most of the companies that are listed and going lower will mean that companies start buying back their stock.
There are now many parts of the country where the prices of homes are so low that investors are buying more houses now than they did two years ago. However this pattern is spotty and the downturn in home prices could continue in many parts of the country. Near me in San Francisco there has been very little reduction in home prices and may not be any. Spotty bottom is the word.
The overall commercial world has not reached the bottom; not anywhere near it. I think we'll know more by mid-January. I'm looking for several segments of the commercial world to stabilize to let me know when the bottom will be reached. In November price searches on the Internet surged and WalMart continues to abide. Those are the beginnings of data evincing some stability.