Earlier this month I wrote a blog suggesting that we have reached a plateau in the telecom -tech world.
One interesting comment suggested that I am not "open in the face of the unknown".
I propose another alternative: I have looked at dozens of technologies and found dozens of plateaus.
Let me illustrate.
* The modern single engine private
plane reached the peak of its design, safety and control elements in 1937 and remains virtually unchanged to this day.
* The standard model automobile with automatic transmission and electric starter is unchanged since 1947 (from the point of view of drivers there has been significant improvement in tires).
* The modern motorcycle was on the road by the mid 1930s and remains unchanged (disk brakes have been a modest safety improvement and off-road bikes can do many interesting tricks).
* Black and white TV remained unchanged for 15 years and color TV remained unchanged for 45 years until flat screen DTV came along.
* The 35mm camera saw virtually no changes from the beginning to the end of its life, almost a century.
* The only change in the land line telephone from 1930 to today was the addition of digital dialing and the invisible implementation of digital circuits.
* The home stereo system remained static from 1962 to 1995. Many audiophiles still prefer the systems of that earlier era.
* The Walkman with the Philips cassette inside it were standard from 1972 to 2004.
* The standard model automobile with automatic transmission and electric starter is unchanged since 1947 (from the point of view of drivers there has been significant improvement in tires).
* The modern motorcycle was on the road by the mid 1930s and remains unchanged (disk brakes have been a modest safety improvement and off-road bikes can do many interesting tricks).
* Black and white TV remained unchanged for 15 years and color TV remained unchanged for 45 years until flat screen DTV came along.
* The 35mm camera saw virtually no changes from the beginning to the end of its life, almost a century.
* The only change in the land line telephone from 1930 to today was the addition of digital dialing and the invisible implementation of digital circuits.
* The home stereo system remained static from 1962 to 1995. Many audiophiles still prefer the systems of that earlier era.
* The Walkman with the Philips cassette inside it were standard from 1972 to 2004.
The list of tech plateaus is long. I have left off the light bulb, the wall switch, most hand tools and kitchen implements.
Tech plateaus are the rule not the exception.
A good source for thinking about this subject is Thomas J. Hughes who has several books on the subject including How to Think about Technology and Culture.