John Judis sticks his neck out in the latest New Republic issue. Judis
calculates the number of delegates the various Republican candidates
will have after the first primaries end on Feb. 5th. With 2,517
delegates voting at the September convention, and 1,259 needed to
win....1,358 will be committed by Feb. 5th. The leader, Guiliani, will
have roughly 459 votes with the rest of the candidates having less.
That leaves Guiliani short by 800 votes, over seven months, to win on the first ballot, which Judis does not think he can get from the remaining 1159 delegates before the convention.
I appreciate vote counting. I did it in my political days.
From Judis' count we can conclude that there will be an exciting and possibly brokered Republican convention.
The Democrats will have their convention sewn up by Hillary by Feb. 5th and nothing but boredom ahead.
Interesting calculations.