In my circle the following subject is
taboo. Nearly everyone I know loves the Apple Iphone, has one, plans to
get one or wants one.
I don't think the Iphone is going to do very well. That statement is heresy.
I see several serious problems with the Iphone. Many people see the Iphone as a paradigm breaker like the Ipod. No, it isn't.
There is a long history of portable music players getting smaller and more convenient and thriving. Starting with Sony's Walkman. The Ipod paradigm break was to offer down-loadable music for $.50 a song. And to do it with such a large library of music that no one else had time to enter the market.
Many people see the Iphone as a stroke of
design genius, and great design can't fail. Wrong. The Iphone is great
design but I disagree with Virginia Postrel, many many objects of great
design beauty have failed or done poorly in the market including many
from Steve Jobs, beginning with the Lisa computer, the Black Box
computer, the Apple PDA, all other single box Imacs, the Apple core
processing station and the Apple TV source box. Design is only one
element of business and definitely not the most important.
The biggest reason for the Iphone to be of little significance is that it is a wireless phone and the American wireless phone system is pathetic. AT&T is more pathetic than the rest. A wireless phone in a pathetic wireless phone system is inherently irrelevant.
We need a wireless phone system, like Europe's, where you buy the phone and connect to any phone service you want with a month to month payment plan. We will be getting this early next year, thanks to Nokia. Apple will adapt, but probably too late.