Pro Commerce

Thinker

I have always made a personal distinction between a thinker and a philosopher.  I call myself the former.  In my use of the term the thinker is concerned with understanding the world around him or her; the philosopher is seeking truth and meaning.  Truth and meaning may or may not be accessible by observing the world we inhabit.

What is interesting to me, and about which I was reminded by a book review of Pierre Hadot’s What Is Ancient Philosophy?, is that the distinction I am forced to draw was not a distinction that was relevant to the Greeks. 

The Greeks were thinkers, in schools....

Immigrant burst

Robert Solow, a prominent economist reviewed a Toffler book in the latest New Republic.  Forget the book, Solow thought it was irrelevant.  What is interesting is the following paragraph from Solow in the review: “Between 1950 and 1973, labor productivity (in private non-farm business) grew at 2.94 percent per year. Thus in 1973 an average hour of work produced 95 percent more output than in 1950. Between 1973 and 1995, the growth rate of labor productivity fell by half, to 1.47 percent per year, so that labor productivity was only 38 percent higher at the end of the period than at the beginning. Between 1995 and 2004, the growth rate returned to 3 percent per year, almost exactly where it had been in the 1950s and 1960s.”

This is a startling piece of news to me.   I was told during the time, the late 1970s, that the reason productivity was down was that the new entrants to the labor market were too young and too stoned to be productive.  I don’t know if this was true.

Regardless, I’m watching our new immigration bill wind its way into law and thinking, “my god, this will bring a big burst in growth to our GDP in the next two years.”  Of the estimated 12 million illegals, my guess is that 2-3 million are highly productive and are off the books (mostly Asian, Indian, Canadian and East European).  They will come onto the books and bring tens of billions of dollars with them.  More growth and more productivity.

(Sorry, the photo is the other meaning of "stoned."  Arabs in 1991.)

Advice for the left

I pointed out earlier that there was no place on the earth where Lefties could find immigrants to fill their ranks in the U.S.

That is true but there is another possibility.  The Left could work on a campaign to bring Canada into the United States as a new state.  Possibly as several states.  This would bring the potential for new Lefties to be part of the United States. 

While Canada has a new Conservative government at the moment, it has a large Lefty population, socialized medicine and many programs that warm the hearts of Lefties such as arts and film subsidies.

Interesting that as soon as Canada got a cooperative prime minister, the U.S. was able to resolve a long standing lumber tariff war in weeks.  It is reported that George Bush did much personal arm twisting among American lumber executives to get the lumber agreement.

University of Chicago, two strikes

I wrote a letter to the University of Chicago monthly (Chronicle) asking when the University was going to publish a discussion of the academic failure of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer of Walt and Mearsheimer anti-Jew* fame.

To me there is no issue of academic freedom in this instance and I won’t waste time reading such crap…the issue is academic competence. Will the monthly magazine discuss crap or something important?

 Turns out, the academic....

North Beach is in a coma

I often describe San Francisco as a 92 year old once beautiful woman who spends two hours a day putting on her make-up.  When she was young she was a commie and has never paid any attention to the world.  She hates children and learns everything she knows from her hair dresser and manicurist.

Herb Caen was the perfect partner for the perennial old lady.  In the fifteen years when San Francisco was in elegant bloom with the hippies, music, color, vitality… Caen never noticed it, never mentioned it once in his daily column.

Now we have part of San Francisco, a formerly...

Russia

My wonderful friend Nadja is visiting from Russia where she lives and works as a high level business consultant.  Her apartment is in Moscow and her clients are all over the country.

I had to get Nadja’s opinion on the current flap that is coming from the Bush Cabinet about Russia being less and less democratic and from the New Republic that Putin is the new Tsar and the Russians like it that way.

Nadja says that small business is everywhere in big cities and thriving.  The Russians love to eat out and shop and they are getting more and more money to do it with.  Medium size and big businesses that cover the country are booming as is the stock market and foreign investment. Russians are proud of the stable ruble and rapid expansion of the market.  Finance and capital are fairly sophisticated in Russia. The railroad and highway infrastructure are constantly impoving.

Three things that are a little hard....

Teaching kids about dogs

Considering the number of dogs, the increase in expensive breeds and number of dogs that are bigger than the kids, in the past few decades, ….we have a special situation that needs attention.  I know San Francisco is ahead of the curve with far more dogs than kids.

When I was growing up most dogs were cocker-spaniels or mutts.  Not much for me to learn about dogs.  I knew to stay away from German Shepherds, the guard dogs of my era.

I don’t find any useful websites for my many grandchildren.  It would be nice if someone created one.

First reality: keep the kids away from dangerous dogs.  Once bitten or attacked, no other doggie lesson is likely to get through.  Rabies shots hurt.

Second reality: dogs are more interested in other dogs than in people. Look to see if the dog you are paying attention to is paying attention to you or to another dog.

Dogs want to smell you.  Offer your hand (back of the hand) first to let the dog know if you are a threat to them.

There are many clues as to whether a dog is friendly or not… many of the clues are breed specific. Kids need to know them.

All these simple points suggest the need for detailed information and training.  Where is that information and why isn’t it readily available on the market?

Unanimous

I’ve said for the past six months that Chief Justice Roberts has been historically important by getting a series of unanimous verdicts.

In a commencement address Roberts explains his logic:

Last week, when Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. delivered his first commencement address, at Georgetown University Law Center, he offered an original, substantive and unambiguous defense of narrow, minimalist rulings.

Roberts began by arguing in....

India and China

I have been talking to a futurist lately.  This made me think about India and China. 

I have stated several times that neither country will come close to the top three or four industrial nations in output or per capita wealth because neither is a meritocratic society, China is secretive and klan based, and India has no idea what honesty is.

The reason both countries are emerging as industrial powers is that one, China, has a great transportation infrastructure, river ways from Shanghai throughout Quandung and the other has educated, low income workers who speak and read English.

I haven’t figured out when either country is going to bump into a productive output ceiling but India is close to it, having no infrastructure (big corporations have the advantage that they can create their own) and China is getting there with no cargo railroads and no functional highways.

My futurist friend suggests that India is a turtle that will always plod along and find alternatives to no infrastructure and that China is a top down autocracy that will keep everything in line until 2008 (Olympics) and possibly 2010 (the big Shanghai Fair).

National intent

The is a great debate raging, rather quietly and slowly, over any nation’s ability to read the national intent of another nation.  The reason for this debate is that we just finished (or appear to have finished) a fifty year cold war with the Soviet Union.

As documents from that fifty year period are beginning to show clearly, neither side had a reasonable understanding of the other side’s intentions.  Considering that a Soviet submarine almost launched a nuclear missile, while it was under attack, during the Cuban missile crisis, there is good reason to be very anxious about the importance of misunderstanding national intent between nuclear powers.

The first reality of our world is...

Executive question

One of my old Lefty friends* sent out a desperate email bemoaning the totally unConstitutional take-over of America by George Bush (the great Satan of Islam and the Left) because the president has signed over 750 laws with a provision that the execution of the law will be based on the Executive interpretation of the Constitution.  My friend was reacting to an hysterical article in the Boston Globe reporting that George Bush has never vetoed a bill but in many hundreds of cases after signing a bill he adds a 'signing statement to the bill -- an 'official document in which a president lays out his legal interpretation of a bill for the federal bureaucracy to follow when implementing the new law. The statements are recorded in the federal register.'

Bush, according to the article, has filed more.....

Simple living and commerce

I have written a popular book on simple living that is still selling well nearly 25 years after I wrote it (Simple Living Investments for Old Age.) 

I am occasional asked how I put my simple living values together with my love of commerce.  Presumably my effort to own as few objects as I can and still be comfortable is seen to contradict an imaginary commercial edict to consume endlessly.

First, I am not a proselyte for simple living, such proselytes are moralistic bores and totally ineffective.  The benefits of simple living are hard to grasp and still harder to enjoy.  The greatest benefit of simple living is freedom and with freedom comes immense responsibility and self-honesty.  Few people seek those last two elements.

Second, I am not a masochist. I love life and wouldn’t miss a pleasure or delight.  For two years I ate lunch at the French Laundry every two months (earliest interval for reservations).  After two dozen meals in paradise the price rose beyond my realm of interest and I stopped going. 

Commerce is not a moral system.  If the participants (buyers) want to eat themselves to death or drink themselves to death (many people do) commerce is indifferent and will gladly provide the food and drink.  If participants want to starve themselves to death, commerce will provide all the tools from media PR kit (about the starving martyr) to a simple pine coffin.  No judgment.

Simple living and commerce have no direct connection.  Simple living is more readily an option in a world of abundance that commerce generates, but that is an incidental connection.

The rest of my life

I had a modest batch of #10 envelopes printed in 1988.  Little did I know that the envelopes would last the rest of my life.

Although I had been using computers from my days in bank marketing research in 1964, had written five books on a computer by 1988, had used Arpanet (the mother of the Internet) since 1972, and put my first book (The Seven Laws of Money) on a public computer (Stanford University's SPIRES) in 1974, I still had no idea that my order of envelopes would last so long.  The emergence of the real computer world was long anticipated but hardly noticed.

Today I only use envelopes once or twice a year, mainly to invoice old fashioned clients and that is often a formality with faxes and PDFs as an alternative.  I pay bills either automatically or online.  I have written less than one letter per year for a decade…thanks to email.

Could anyone have had the foresight in 1988 to tell me to cut my envelope printing order to 100?

By the book

I raised my children by the book.  The book happened to be the book of management since I was a manager.

I compare my child rearing practices with that of my partner’s traditional parents.  Her parents told their children everything that was wrong and gave them whole lists of things to keep in mind.  For example, don’t cross a street alone until you are 5, look both ways before stepping off the curb, wait for red lights, go to the corner to cross, wait till all the cars stop, stay in the painted boundaries … etc. 

I used management.  One rule at a time and only when the situation called for it.  Reward good behavior when it happens.  “That was great, you looked both ways before stepping into the street.”

Now it turns out that two women managers applied the same management principles to their marriage at the point it was about to break-up.  It worked, they saved their marriages and they wrote a book: The Scorecard.  They set out to change their husband’s behavior just the way one would work with a difficult but valuable employee.   

Did the two women keep a personnel file with notes on their conversations?  I haven’t read the book yet, but dealing with a calm partner and a clear list of the desired relationship outcomes strikes me as something that is workable.

Local joke

The President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, Aaron Peskin, wanted to put paintings of Abu Ghraib torture in the City Hall Gallery, does everything possible to drive business out of San Francisco and keep it from coming to San Francisco, stopped a new building in North Beach so the lot could be turned into a mini-park with two benches and two trees. Peskin is a short man with visions of 19th century ideology guiding him. 

It is a local joke that he looks like the short Iranian President Ahmadinejad who models his ideology on Hitler. Do the two look alike to you?

Advertising

Only one out of ten American households have Tivos at this point, but 9 out of ten of those Tivo owners zap the commercials.(Source)

Is this the future of TV advertising?  Tivo users may be the leading-edge first-adapters and somewhat unrepresentative, but I think they do express a popular dislike of advertising.

To me, the best evidence of popular dislike of advertising is the fact that Google has become the unquestioned number one search engine and the only significant difference between Google and the rest of the pack is the clean-white simplicity anti-ad quality of its home search page.

What does this mean?  For one thing it means Google will thrive as TV ads migrate to the Internet.

What else does this mean?  I think some folks in advertising and the media are going to wonder why advertising is so generally offensive.  When they ask that question the answer will be simple.  Some advertising isn’t offensive, but a great deal of the rest is.  Therefore people gladly skip all advertising even if a small proportion doesn’t warrant skipping.

Solution.  Only put ads together with other ads that are equally appealing to the same group of people.  If we know that a particular program only has entertaining ads and no boring ads, we won’t be zapping.  But even one bad apple, one boring or offensive ad, will spoil the barrel and have us zapping again.

That is business folks.  A shopping center where a shopper gets burned at two different stores will lose that shopper for good. Every other store in the shopping center will be a loser.

Safety net

There is little doubt that the economic safety net in the U.S. is not nearly as tight nor functional as the safety nets in socialized parts of Europe.  Does that mean that Americans are more mean-spirited and less generous than Europeans?

A good question. There is ample evidence to answer the question.

The answer is “no!”  Americans have a more Puritan base to their safety net than the socialized European nations. There is a big difference in the nature of who is covered by the safety nets, but not in the level of generosity.

If you have a teenage child who is....

Footnote

Readers of the news most certainly have noticed that there seem to be two Palestinian leaders, President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh.  Unfortunately the relationship is never or almost never mentioned.  The relationship is not one you assume if you understand traditional government, otherwise the followers of one group would not be trying to kill the followers of the other group.

The Hamas leader who is Prime Minister, Ismail Haniyeh, was elected by the Palestinians both on a slate for Prime Minister and by the popularly elected Parliament. The Parliament and the Prime Minister represent the Palestinian Authority, a government, in the traditional sense.

President Mahmoud Abbas on the other hand was elected by the Fatah party as their leader and Fatah is the only party that is the PLO.  The PLO was brought in under the Oslo Accords to run Palestine.

That is why you hear Abbas talk endlessly about wanting to start peace negotiation; the PLO was brought in solely for that purpose.  But Abbas doesn’t represent the Palestinians in any sense of the word “represent.”

Greed?

Is greed a viable word or concept in the commercial world? 

I seriously doubt that greed is meaningful in the positive sum contemporary world of commerce. A person who accumulates large amounts of money is not the object of opprobrium to those who understand that the accumulation is not at the expense of others, it generally inures to the benefit of others.

We have other words that describe questionable personal and social behavior: for coveting another’s possession we have the term envy; for excessive consumption of food we use gluttony.

Buddhism believes that greed is based on incorrectly connecting material wealth with happiness. This remains true but has nothing to do with the accumulation of money; it applies more appropriately to hording and buying objects to create personal identity.

As far as I can see, greed disappeared as a viable concept when the world became positive sum.  Someone who accumulates money in the commercial world is hardly different than another person who accumulates beautiful pebbles from the beach, it is a highly personal affectation, with virtually no negative impact other than envy.

Smoke pit

Tassajara Hot Springs is a Zen summer resort that is used most of the year as a monastery.  I have a close connection as a business consultant stretching back over thirty years.

I was just at Tassajara for the weekend.  I do what I often do, visit the smokers hang-out.  Smokers are often more interesting people than the general population but they don’t seem to recognize themselves as defiant outlaws, more often they feel guilty and consider themselves pathetic social outcasts. I keep talking to smokers waiting for the day they can be organized as outlaws.

I have watched the smokers pit at Tassajara for many years as it migrated from a place within view of everyone else to a hidden location behind the garbage pit. (Upper right photo.)

Zen Buddhism didn’t put the smokers into the bardo, the smokers themselves did.  If they wanted gold plated chairs and a highly refined cantilevered Japanese deck they could have one by asking.

The smokers pit is five rejected plastic chairs in a narrow dirt-floor space removed from everything.  This seems to be the esthetic that the smokers feel is consistent of their self image.  (Left hand photo.)

The smokers also have selected a spot where they have one of the most intimate and beautiful views of the local stream.  Smokers have chosen to be both social pariahs and self pleasuring esthetes.(Lower right photo.)

The story of Job

The story of Job is a common theme for sermons and books.  I don't know if I have a unique perspective to offer.

I, like many of my readers, have some keen observations that I find difficult to communicate to others.  I see the author of the Job story as being in the same position.  That is what the story seems to be about. (Yes, I know that linguists tell us that the beginning and end of Job were written by a different person than the core part of the story.)

Job, a pillar of the community a man who has always tried to do the right thing, finds himself faced with a series of increasingly severe calamities.  Job knows that The Omnipotent is testing him.  Job finally relents and gets angry at The Omnipotent. At this point The Omnipotent responds by telling Job what The Omnipotent wants Job to understand. 

Job doesn't understand what The Omnipotent wants him to understand.  So The Omnipotent itself relents, makes things right for Job and leaves him alone.

That is probably what we do when we can’t communicate with people who don’t comprehend what we’re telling them. Isn't that the story of you and me; trying to communicate...and it turns out the person isn't resisting, they can't understand us?

Squealing pigs

The Jerusalem Post usually gets a bunch of comments from readers who are generally Lefty, though the paper itself isn‘t.

The comments were different on a recent article about no more gasoline to the Palestinians until they pay their bills.  The comments were consistently on one side, many were humorous.  The article reports that the Palestinians are squealing like hungry pigs about the cut off of gasoline.

The comments have no sympathy for the poor squealing Palestinians.  The respondents range from ‘How can Arabs run out of gasoline?’ ( because other Arabs hate Palestinians and only pretend to support the Hamas insanity) to ‘Where does the money go when they buy gasoline at the pump?’  (It goes to Hamas and Fatah and $100,000 a month goes to Adolph Arafat’s widow living in Paris.)

Yes that photo is Hillary and Suha.  We'll see a lot more of that photo.

Roofers

We had a new roof installed over the past three days.  The gang of eight men went down to the bare rafters as is visible in the photo on the right.  The men were Mexican, Nicaraguan, Vietnamese and the boss was Korean.  They did a first rate professional job.

Someone has put out the word in San Francisco that home repair workers are judged by the way they clean up.  This team, Summit Roofing, cleaned up every day and left the area around the house cleaner than they found it.  Considering that they removed an entire roof and took it to the dump… that was quite a mess.

I think people judge home repair workers by how clean they leave the work place.

We had a tree pruning crew in in January (Costello's) and they did an immaculate job too.

The big question of our time

The great question of our times is what values and systems contribute to a nation’s commercial success.

Communism was the great teacher of the 20th Century.  By starting the Cold War, the Soviet Union catalyzed the differences between the free market and the planned economy.  Once the distinction was drawn the horse race was on and the outcome was visible to all.

In 1950, the U.S. was on a direct path to socialism with labor in ascent and nationalization on the horizon. Even the great Schumpeter saw the inevitability of socialism. The emergence of the Soviet Union as an opponent helped crystallize the concepts and practices of the “free market” which could never have emerged without the boogieman and real threat of communism.

Over the next fifty years America shed its retail pricing laws, lowered its trade barriers, welcomed blacks into society, created the WTO, reduced the regulatory and tax burden on businesses large and small.  America became the fount of commercial creativity and the economic locomotive for the rest of the world.  The economic miracles of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore made clear the difference between a planned economy and a free market.  The difference was so evident to all nations, that socialism was doomed even before the fall of the Soviet Union.

Now we come to the serious question.  How much government planning can a society have in parallel with a free market and still thrive?  Remember, in thinking about this question, that the U.S. will remain as the engine of innovation and creativity to be parasitically enjoyed by everyone else. 

Ten years from now

Some day we will face the question of what Persia will have to do to be allowed to rejoin the community of international diplomacy.

When Iran held American Embassy personnel hostage, they violated a 2,000 year old tradition of diplomatic immunity.  The United States and many other nations have refused further dealings with Iran since that historic outrage.  We should not relent.

What will the Persians have to do to be allowed to rejoin the international diplomatic society?  Here is my list:

David says it

David Brooks says something we rarely hear in public discussion:  Self-control is at the root of most so called social problems. Kids who have the least self-control end-up as adults in the bottom tier of society.  It is simply a fact of life and no amount of money for poverty, education or social policies can change that fact.  Just watch a group of three-year-old black boys in a bad neighborhood playing.

Self-control can be taught, if its done early and for long periods of time at a stretch.  But we don’t know how, within the rules of our society, to get to the young children who need the training the most.

I wish to repeat my admonition that I hope some day will be written on the inside of the rotunda of the House and Senate: Our job is to further socialization.

Most legislation is the source of new future problems because it is unrelated to my admonition.  David Brooks gets at the core experience behind my legislative advice.

Demographics or institutions?

There is a scare tactic being used on the Left to frighten Lefties.  The claim is that Republicans out reproduce Democrats.  That is actually true because Republicans tend to live in suburbs.  But this is of no consequence for two reasons.  First, Independents out number both Republicans and Democrats and they reproduce more like Republicans.  Independents are generally independent and should be courted.  But they would never buy Nancy Pelosi or Howard Dean policies.

Second, for every net new American by birth....

Angela Hewitt

I got to hear Ms Hewitt last week with the San Francisco Symphony.  Ms. Hewitt may be the finest living pianist; I think she is.  I loved Glenn Gould and now I have a new love.  Her performance is animated and precise.  The music from her is powerful, smooth and passionate.  She uses her body and has a dramatic face that she uses to wonderful effect.

I am not much for recorded music, for reasons I don’t understand, but I love live performance.  The concert hall, the presence and the quality of sound are a source of great pleasure for me.  Ms Hewitt adds one dimension that great artists usually don’t offer: she is present for the audience.  Often she talks to the audience before beginning.  Last week she signed CDs after the performance to be in touch with her admirers. 

Check her blog to see how direct and human she is.  I think she is a new force in live performance (even though she has been on the scene for a long time).

Power tool drag races

Its hard to beat this San Francisco urban gorrilla event, the annual power tool drag races.

The first photo on the right tells the whole story. Two tracks side by side in a junk yard. Two drag racers powered by electric power tool motors (see two worm drive drill racers in the first left hand photo) race down the 75 foot strips for timed laps. The electric wires powering the tools lie beside the tracks.

The most common source of traction are power saw blades, as in the two examples shown. They really tear up the wooden tracks.

The style and décor of the event are seen in the outfit of the starting woman on the right.

The ingenuity of the redneck-junk yard crowd is evident in the blasé woman who is cooking hot dogs with two household electric irons.

Running with the bulls

Today was the day. The event was great as you can see from the photos. This was the first San Francisco Running with the Bulls event.

We had 45 runners and taunters and three art cars. On the upper right are three of the four organizers: Sonie Richardson, me, Dave Calkins and missing Simone Davalos. Simone was busy getting ready for her noon event: power tool drag racing.

The first photo on the left is the start, the second photo on the right is the run itself in the final stretch on Clay St.

The bottom photo on the left and the fifth and final photo on the right show runners rehashing details after the race. Great fun.

This is a years notice to be ready for next year and a geometric increase in the number of participants.

Anna the blonde

The Supremes ruled in favor of Anna Nicole Smith.  They call her Nicky. 

I read the case and suffered for my readers.  The court clerk who wrote this opinion has reached the peak of his or her career.  The writing style verges on the incomprehensible.  No  law firm would let this person write an important brief and expect to win.

Nevertheless I can see several elements in the opinion.  First it continues the Chief Justice’s string of unanimous decisions.  Maybe that is why the court gave the case to an incompetent clerk to write.  Roberts strikes me as the most powerful and influential chief justice to hold that job in half a century.

Second, it overrules the California 9th Circuit Court that has been the most outlier of all the Circuit Courts. A message of caution to all Circuit Courts.

Third, it sends the case back to be decided by a Federal bankruptcy court that is given precedence over the Texas estate court.  State courts have priority in a few areas, such as divorce.  This case may be part of a pattern of restrictions on State Court powers.

My personal concern in this case is that I favor Anna over Marshall’s son.  She gave the father several years of pleasure, for which he was duly grateful.  I appreciate her efforts and hope my final years are equally blessed.  His son did nothing but be born and lead a cautious life like an entitled welfare-check son.