I was surprised to read in the Jerusalem Post that the birth rate for non-orthodox Israelis is 2.5. Israel’s non-orthodox Jewish population is growing (the orthodox is growing even faster.) The 2.5 number is above neutral population reproduction rate of 2.2 and far above the declining reproduction rates (1.3 to 1.6) of most equivalent populations that are in developed countries, urban and upper middleclass as the Israelis are. (I won’t give a detailed explanation of what a neutral 2.2 reproduction rate means because the math is actuarial. In summary 100 people who started having children 50 years ago and today are all dead, have left 100 offspring alive today. A number higher than 2.2 means that more than 100 offspring are alive today.)
When I combine this piece of startling (2.5 Israeli reproduction rate) information with the words of a good friend who is a global tour guide, I come up with an original explanation of the phenomenon.
My friend, Michael E., says that the worst people to travel with....
My friend, Michael E., says that the worst people to travel with and be a tour guide for are groups of singles. Not only are they selfish as individuals and as a group but the singles groups are more likely than others to include a few downright mean people. A poorly socialized group.
On the one hand we have self-centered people who are single and on the other hand we have Israelis who are reproducing actively..(a visit to Tel Aviv will confirm that Israelis are making children at a high rate; pregnant women, infants and babies are everywhere.) Having children and raising them is the consequence of a high level of socialization (people can successfully form families and get along only if they are well socialized.)
I think the Israeli high reproduction rate is due to successful socialization which in turn is the result of the universal military service that Israel has.
Why? The universal Israeli military service includes women as well. That means that everyone gets to know other people their age, to work with others whether they want to or not and everyone comes out of the service with a sense that they belong to a nation along with other people. Universal military service is a very important form of socialization and always has been. (Aside: I was in the U.S. Army and went through basic training at Fort Ord.)
To suggest to the Japanese, Swedes, French and every other developed nation that the way to reverse their population decline is to create a universal military service will be taken as absurd. But, I think I may be right.