The three following entries seem to me to be connected:
Before the last election I said I expected a significant
shift in Jewish and Black votes to Bush. The election outcomes that were reported by the press showed only small
movements in the direction of Bush by those two groups.
The problem is that the measures of modest ethnic change came from exit polling results. I think big changes occurred.
There were two big problems with the exit polling. One, the polling was conducted by the woman who runs the LA Times political polls --- she has a long history of Lefty bias and bad results, where her polls don’t match the election outcome. Second, the public results of the exit polling didn’t mention that they were heavily sampled in the eleven key “battle zone” states and don’t reflect the main centers of Jewish and Black voters. The state that was an exception, Florida, is where the exit polls showed Bush losing, when he actually won the state by 7%. The exit-polling sample in Florida was clearly a bad sample.
So I predict that, any day now, we will see precinct analysis that shows a large shift in Jewish and Black voting toward Bush actually occurred.
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There is great optimism these days that the death of
Adolph Arafat has opened the way to a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli
borders. I don’t think so. I think we will see a long period of
negotiation and a return to Palestinian murders of Israeli civilians. Then the
wall will be completed in a hurry.
My evidence is the reaction to the Israeli release of 900 prisoners --- the Palestinians said it was “not enough.” This is a continuation of Arafat talk.
Democracy works. The Palestinians have elected people who represent their views. Those views are simple: kill all Jews, or drive them into the Mediterranean. The decent Palestinians long ago left the country.
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In the United States, more than half of eligible voters
don’t vote. This is good; this is a key
element of a true democracy. The
people, who don’t vote, come out to vote when they think things have gotten so bad
that the incumbents must be removed. That is what happened in California. Non-voters are the rational reserve in a democracy.