One of my blog readers wants to know if I am still projecting a Bush victory next month.
I am projecting a landslide victory for President Bush. Headlines: Bush Landslide.
There are two pieces of evidence. The old evidence is the error and direction of error in the 2002 Senate election and the California recall election of 2003. In both of those races the polls were way off, and off in favor of the losing Democrats.
The new evidence is Australia. Polls tend to be more accurate in Australia because of compulsory voting which reduces error due to estimating which poll respondent will vote. The Australian polls had Howard leading Latham by one point for months and weeks before the election. Howard, the Conservative won by 52.5% to 47% and carried more new seats in his Parliament.
There is one old political adage that has been right in California since 1952 when it was first apparent. An incumbent never loses if his approval rate remains at or above 45%. President Bush has never dropped below 47% approval rate.