The American century

Will the United States (or its successor institution) still be the dominant force in the 22^nd Century?

I think the answer depends upon which attributes of the U.S. we believe brought us to our current state of global dominance. We should start by agreeing that commercial dominance is at the core of American power.  World powers have always been based on their commercial base.  That moves the question to an examination of attributes that have generated the dynamo of commerce we have experienced for the past sixty years.

Commerce thrives on six attributes: diversity, meritocracy, openness, markets, technological affinity and decentralization. I argue that these attributes are deeply built into the structure of America and will, thus, support the commercial dominance of the U.S. for a long time. ( Commerce explains [Chapter 2] why these attributes favor commerce.)

Diversity is an inherent American quality.  Founded by immigrants from every part of the globe, the inflow has rarely slowed. The anti-immigrant tide has always been held at bay by the needs of domestic business.  Improved technology may make illegal immigration more difficult, but, like money and cocaine, the demand will always bring a supply of immigrants into the U.S.  No other country is the magnet for immigrants like the U.S.  No other country is as able to accommodate immigrants so readily. (Canada and Israel are both a close second.)

Meritocracy grew from the start in the American revolutionary war where ordinary men were valued for their merit and not their status.  This attribute was fed by the massive immigration into the American west where men and women could escape status-burdened towns and cities to start anew.  The Civil War saw the more meritocratic North defeat the aristocracy of the South. The struggle for meritocracy to remain dominant in American will continue. The near total absence of an existing birthright elite is good insurance.  Again, only Canada, Israel, Australia and Japan are meritocratic societies.

Openness is a synonym for honesty.  The U.S. ranks below Japan, Holland, Denmark, Israel and Sweden on this attribute.  But that is still high enough to keep open markets functioning. The federal government has been improving the level of American corporate openness and can be expected to continue doing so.

Markets are generally open and unrestricted in the U.S. Monopoly conditions have been steadily diminishing for decades as global trade accelerates.  The U.S. was a major force in creating the WTO and will continue to support this global direction. The physical size of the U.S. will make monopoly conditions hard to re-establish.

The U.S. has no particular edge in technological affinity. Only Arabs, Latins, Africans and other tribal peoples seem to lack the technological affinities of the rest of the world.

Decentralization is the birthright of America ... an attribute found nowhere else.  The American form of government is always self-organization from the bottom up.  First a water district, then a sewer and electric district, then a fire and police district and finally a school district. Each is formed by a commission of local people.  Americans self-organize from the bottom up.  The commercial value of decentralization in the form of initiative and autonomy are at the core of America.  It is also what protects the rebellious, defiant sources of creativity in Americans.

The American global commercial megalith would seem to have a long future ahead of it.

Comments

[Fred]

"The American global commercial megalith would seem to have a long future ahead of it."

Oh man, Mike, you are so out of touch with what's been happening for the past 5 years that I don't even know where to begin. The world is turning against and the dollar as the international currency of exchange. This speaks volumes about our decline as a world political and economic power. Moreover, other regions and continents are choosing autonomy over being part of our sphere of influence. Look at the Europeans, the South Americans, the Asians. They are all saying "F**k you" to us and looking out after their own best interests.

We are steadily turning into a nation of low paid burger flippers and Wal-mart greeters.