I’m struggling with the future of modern commerce. Please feel free to help out. Modern commerce has only arisen in a few places in its fully developed powerful form. In Holland in the 17th Century, Britain in the 18th and 19th Century and in the U.S. in the 19th and 20th Centuries.
The first element I am examining is the relationship of family and meritocracy. Tribe has always been the bane of modern commerce. It doesn’t exist in tribal countries. Family is also a barrier as in Asia in China, Taiwan and South Korea. Japan is an exception because meritocracy trumps family.
America has always had weak families. As the nation moved West, families became nuclear and too small to stifle meritocracy.
America is on the path to no families with gay parents and single invitro mothers. The black community has almost reached the ultimate of ‘no families’. But we don’t see modern commerce in the black community.
I don’t know the connection between weak families and meritocracy and no families and modern commerce. Other than the black disaster, we don’t have any data about non-families in the non-black community.
I’m not prepared to make any projections. It may be like Mancur Olson, we have a tea cup dish with too much family prevents meritocracy and too little does the same by failing to create strong individuals.