From my 50 years in political campaigns including the many surveys I conducted, I have some clear views of the voting system.
The final election looks like waves on the ocean at the beach. The waves consist of an underlying tide, there is a visible surface that is caused by the land formation underneath, by very long waves traveling hundreds of miles, by surface waves caused by wind and by countervailing waves related to the underlying surface and wind.
This election is being determined by the following factors. An incumbent in any office has a significant advantage. Probably 3 to 1.
Therefore president Obama has lost the election by his own actions.
The strongest undercurrent in an election is the tide. The president was elected because much of the electorate had lost 40% of their assets in the financial and housing crash. There was a national 2008 political movement to: ‘throw the rascals out’.
This undercurrent was totally reversed when the newly elected Democrat super-majority showed themselves to be worse rascals. They passed an earth shattering increase in government spending (ObamaCare) without a single Republican vote using an inappropriate fiscal voting procedure.
The emerging tide is the Tea Party. The Tea Party resulted in the most extensive political realignment in American history in the 2010 election. The Tea Party is still energized and is the backbone of the Republican party .... the source of its renewed energy. It is a tide.
Next mistakes: President Obama lost significant public support over a two-year period by perpetually lying and expecting the media to blindly support him and his lies. This is a reason for his electoral standing that has never exceeded 45%. 45% is a certain loss for an incumbent. (The biggest lie was from Senate majority leader Reid who claimed on the Senate floor that candidate Romney hadn’t paid income tax for 10 years. The press swallowed the obvious lie.)
Next mistake: trying to start a class war. Most Americans have no interest in class war and consider it disgusting behavior on the part of any leader. For me this was a major issue. For most Americans is just one of many signs of an inadequate president.
Next mistake: Obama and his minions have been accusing his opponents of racism nearly every week. This plays well with his hardcore white-guilt-Democrat supporters but antagonizes the rest of America.
The biggest campaign mistake: Attacking the opposition continually. Attacking has been Obama and the Democrats greatest failure. It is entirely reasonable to attack your opponent early in the campaign. It is best for the attack to be from a source other than the candidate. Sometime after July, no candidate and certainly no incumbent should attack the opposition. Opposition to policy is understood by Americans. Personal attacks are abhorred.
Obama never stopped attacking and the attacks have never been credible. That is an overriding reason for the loss in this campaign.
You will not see these positions from any other political analysts. The paid pundits believe in economic forces which I consider generally irrelevant in politics. They believe in anti-black racism which is simply non-existent based on many surveys I have done.
Lastly, other analysts have no understanding that non-voters comprise nearly 50% of the electorate. They have a singular view: ‘politics is corrupt, but it doesn't intrude in my life’... ‘so I usually don’t vote.’ . It is these people who came out to vote for Romney. They were seriously offended by many things Obama did and said in office.